New plays added to our book [A- and above fund]

These are positions we've added to our book since using our risk model:

• AFC Burnemouth to finish top six (3] 
• Dortmund to win bundesliga without Bayern Munich
• AS Roma to win group [x3]
• Bodo Glimt to win group C [Hedge]
• Chelsea and Man Cty to qualify from their UCL grup [x3]
• Zenit not to qualify from group H
• Club Brugge not to qualify from group A
• Buffalo Blls and Tamapa Bay Buccaneers to win their groups
• Dallas Cowboys to win NFC East
• New England Patriots v New York Jets 
• Arizona Cardnals [W]  -2.5 v Houston Texans

The A- and above fund

 

The A- and above fund is siimply a collection of positions taken based on our approach. 

positions taken in this fund are considered to have a low risk of failure which allows us to leverage into positiions. Positions in this fund are usually longer term plays that play out over a season which we all LTP's or long term positions, 

We've found these positions to be safer than normal week too week bettiing as we're betting on a team ability to be consistent over a season as opposed to a team's ablity to beat another. we will and have taken psoitions where we believe teams we back have an edge over another outfit  but usually our positions usually last over a season.

For us, betting iis as much a fiinanial exercise as much as an intellectual one so we have a 8 percent hurdle rate which means we only take posiitiions take meet oor exceed our hurdle rate

These are the positions we have on our book at the tme of writing:

• West Brom to finish top six
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers [W[ v Atlanta Falcons
• AS Roma to win group C [Europa League]
• Chelsea to finish top four x6 ([Premier League]

We'll update readers throughout the year of positions we add to the book  

Our Approach

Our approach to betting is extremely simple but effective. 

our analysis starts with the club and rate clubs across five aareas we believe all clubs across in all sports has to get right: finance, recruitment, coaching/development, systems and morale.

before every season, we grade each team we bet on and adjust our for in season changes made by clubs.

in addition to analysing clubs, we also grade risk based on the likelyhood of failure across an Ato D scale (A- lowest risk of failure/D- highest) and grade value based on our analysis of clubs we plan to bet on over the season.

We believe clubs who score highly in those five areas or more likely than clubs that don't which provides opportunity for us as clubs who score highly in our analysis are often undervalued by bookmakers which caan and has led to big gains.

we started like most bettors trying to beat bookies but in our experience it makes more sesne to appraoch the market with a clear hurdle rate and process which allows you to win consistently and here at TCR Bet journal believe we have both.